Economist Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin is “Winning” BitBoy Crypto
Economist Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin is “Winning” BitBoy Crypto
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The world economy is on the verge of crisis again, cryptocurrencies will be strong
Vulnerability refers to the property that things are vulnerable to damage when faced with fluctuations. -Nassim Nicholas Taleb In the face of economic fluctuations, it is disadvantageous to hold such a negative view. Every capital market has its own life cycle, which inevitably goes through a process from growth, to peak, and then to recession. Now is no exception. As we emerge from the longest bull market in history, we suddenly find ourselves in a highly vulnerable global economy facing the panicked and perplexed planet unprepared. However, the turmoil has just begun. Newton's first law, also known as "the law of inertia", means that any object must maintain a constant linear motion or standstill until an external force forces it to change its state of motion. Although this analogy does not perfectly correspond to the capital market (because the market is always changing and developing in different directions), at least one thing is certain that under the action of the market mechanism, the market cycle always appears Trend from peak to valley. The music box winds up, and the performance of the song sounds, and then it stops after a while. When this happens, the market structure collapses, eventually leading to huge chaos, and then falling into silence. Once external forces force the entire economy into trouble, people will realize the long-standing hidden structural defects in the economy. Now, the world economy is on the verge of crisis again. All human beings have to face a sudden outbreak of a global epidemic and the resulting shocks in supply and demand in the market. The economies of some countries have stalled. Ironically, the effects of inertia may be prevalent in market fluctuations. While witnessing the development of the global economy, we still find two simultaneous macro trends: --1-- USD strong We believe that the strong US dollar is driven by three factors: Investors turn to safe assets: Despite the Fed ’s interest rate cuts and monetary stimulus policies, the market ’s increasing demand for the US dollar has pushed up the US dollar index and hit a new high in 18 years. US Dollar Financing Issues: Cross-currency basis swaps measure that investors are more inclined to hold the US dollar than the euro or the yen. On March 17, the euro-dollar basis swap swap premium expanded from -60 basis points to -120 basis points, the highest level since 2011. As of press time, the Euro-US dollar basis swap has rapidly dropped to about -27 basis points, while the US dollar-Japanese yen basis swap has expanded to -70 basis points. Negative basis points indicate greater pressure on the dollar and higher hedging costs for European and Japanese investors. The reality is that U.S. banks, which are the main source of funding for the U.S. dollar, are storing large amounts of cash instead of actively issuing short-term U.S. dollar loans to foreign banks. Due to recent pressure from the balance sheet, more and more U.S. banks are beginning to reduce credit lines to retain cash. In addition, many foreign banks that lack direct access to the US dollar market can only rely on central bank liquidity swaps for financing. This week, the Fed and several other central banks opened new liquidity swap tools, providing USD 30 billion to USD 60 billion of liquidity, respectively, to ease pressure on USD financing. Central banks in emerging market countries are taking urgent steps and lowering their benchmark interest rates: Emerging market investors are very worried about the stability of their currencies and are pouring into the dollar market. According to Bloomberg, all major emerging market currencies weakened against the US dollar on January 20, just as the new crown virus began to spread in Asia. ——2—— Treasury liquidity tightening Abnormally performing credit markets: In general, price fluctuations will prompt investors to switch from risky assets (such as stocks) to safe-haven assets (such as bonds). This was indeed the case when the new coronavirus was causing panic. However, the current despair of liquidity (especially cash) by market investors has led to a large-scale sell-off in the global bond market, falling bond prices and rising interest rates. Repurchase market: The Federal Reserve's rescue measures have not brought the expected results. In the past week, the Federal Reserve announced three repurchases and other measures to release liquidity, hoping to ease the current state of the US Treasury market and reduce the inventory of primary dealers. However, market demand for government bonds remains sluggish. Let's turn our eyes from the home of the macro economy to the cryptocurrency market. Although they are not necessarily related, we find that the two are closely related. In the face of volatility, it is particularly important to develop a price action strategy. The CBOE-VIX index, an indicator that predicts the trend of the S & P 500 in the next 30 days, has surged to its highest level since the last global financial crisis. At the same time, we also saw that the 90-day implied volatility of Bitcoin options rose to 6.8% (annualized 130%), which is about 5.9% (annualized 113%) this weekend. As the "Black Thursday" on March 12th, BTC was down 40% and ETH was down 50%, some leveraged positions were forced to close. According to reports, BitMEX alone closed USD 700 million worth of long and short positions. At the same time, the sell-off of ETH dropped the value of the DeFi ecosystem by 40%. The total amount of collateral liquidation of Compound, dYdX and Maker and other lending platforms reached US $ 10 million. But in this turbulent market, not all assets perform so badly. Although the price of BTC, like the stock market at the beginning, plummeted, falling by 60% from the high price in mid-February, it rebounded by about 50% from the price low on March 12. Over the past period, we have found a large amount of funds flowing from altcoins to BTC. With the spot premium (the spot price is higher than the futures price), the demand for bitcoin lending has increased. The effective fund interest rate also gradually returned to normal as the curve was inverted. In contrast, when futures are at a premium (the futures price is higher than the spot price), there is almost no demand for BTC's lending transactions. At present, the BTC funding rate on various lending platforms has increased from 3-5% to 8%, and the ETH funding rate has increased from 2-4% to 6%. ——3—— Floating profit stablecoin market Since February 14, the entire cryptocurrency market has experienced a large-scale sell-off, with a market value of $ 45 billion evaporated. At the same time, the market value of USDT has risen to nearly $ 5 billion. USDT has emerged from this market volatility and has become a safe-haven asset. This week, the premium rate of USDT prices in China and South Korea is as high as 7%, which is caused by the demand of payment service providers and arbitrage traders. The current over-the-counter USDT supply exceeds supply. At the same time, the market value of USDC climbed to US $ 630 million, a record high. The market value of BUSD is exceeding the US $ 150 million mark, mainly due to the surge in demand for Binance's borrowing and margin trading. ——4—— Near-term outlook We pay close attention to the changing macroeconomic trends and the successive monetary and fiscal policies implemented by governments around the world. Although we cannot predict the specific trend of the market, we still believe that cryptocurrency as an asset class will be strong. In a nutshell, we think: ● Due to the recent sell-off in the market, the value of positions has shrunk sharply, making the distribution of positions in the market clearer. ● With the exit of market makers, the spread between major exchanges has brought more market arbitrage opportunities for retail traders. In particular, the derivatives market (futures and perpetual swaps) has seen a significant discount compared to the spot market, which has pushed up BTC's lending rate. ● By hedging the spot and long futures, market participants can carry out arbitrage trading, which is completely contrary to the market situation we saw last year (the futures price is significantly higher than the spot). ● Over the past six months, trading activities in the options market have grown rapidly. We expect that trading activities in the options market will continue to grow. ● At present, on our platform, institutional clients such as hedge funds, arbitrage traders, crypto companies, etc. have all bought a lot of BTC and USDT. Market volatility is part of investment. We believe that after a period of time, the economy will re-enter the upward trajectory, please let us work together for it.
Cryptocurrencies have grown exponentially not only in price this past year but also in public awareness and popular attention. The novel feeling to an emerging financial and technological market is reminiscent of the rise of the Internet with its innovative potential. In turn, a heightened collective societal awareness of this new innovative potential has led to a change in the nature of the market dynamics of cryptocurrencies. As Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle posits, “The observation of a phenomenon changes the phenomena itself.” The observation of thousands of young millennials, and now middle-aged investors, will only accelerate the rise of cryptocurrencies as times goes on. Today, we are seeing the real-world effects of a newfound intrigue into cryptocurrencies. This new interest is causing a narrowing of the divergence between truth and fiction over accurate knowledge about cryptocurrencies. The force drawing this gap narrower each day is an increased dissemination of truthful information that has generated legions of individual investors into new cryptocurrency markets; in particular, Ripple’s XRP. As the public expands its understanding of Ripple’s XRP, the capital inflow from both individual and institutional investors combined will likely grow to levels that will exponentially grow the liquidity of XRP and, as a byproduct, its price. Here, in this report, I will provide an overview and analysis of Ripple’s XRP and the implications Q4 2017 and the year 2018 and beyond hold for the future of XRP and its price. THE CONCEPT: WHAT IS XRP? XRP is the digital asset used by Ripple to offer financial institutions an option for liquidity to conduct cross-border payments. It is predominantly used for Ripple’s solution for the minimization of liquidity costs. In contrast to most other cryptocurrencies, XRP’s application here features a real-world applicability that extends to real-world transactions. It is used for the xRapid solution provided by Ripple, and is the only one of the three solutions Ripple offers (The others are xCurrent and xVia) that employs the use of XRP. THE RATIONALE: WHY XRP? There is a myriad of factors that distinguish XRP from other cryptocurrencies and establish it as a forerunner to what may become the dominant cryptocurrencies in the years that lie ahead. Cost: Comparatively, XRP has the lowest cost per transaction at $0.0004. In contrast, BCH is $0.26, LTC is $0.37, DASH is $0.64, ETH is $0.96, and BTC is $28.23. Scalability: XRP can handle over 1,500 transactions per second whereas BCH can handle 24 per second, LTC can handle 56 per second, DASH can handle 10 per second, ETH can handle 16 per second, and BTC can handle 24 per second. Speed: XRP can conduct transactions at a rate of 3 seconds per transaction, BCH at a rate of 58 minutes per transaction, LTC at 17 minutes per transaction, DASH at 15 minutes per transaction, ETH at 2 minutes per transaction, and BTC 1 hour and 6 minutes per transaction. XRP’s availability is ever-expanding. It is currently available on over 50 exchanges including Bitstamp, Bithumb, Bittrex, Binance, Bitfinex, Kraken, and Poloniex. The volume of XRP availability is, in addition, in an expansionary phase. The primary location of exchange volume is concentrated in Asia; in particular, South Korea. However, as mainstream media attention increases, so will American interest as well. There already have been tell-tale signs indicative in news outlets that have covered Ripple recently in the wake of XRP’s rise in CNBC, Bloomberg, Forbes, Investopedia, and Yahoo Finance. Simply consider the mania generated by the media attention to Bitcoin. Repetitive news stories featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, CBS, and other mainstream media news outlets. Countless articles disparaging it as a bubble and hailing it as a force that could deconstruct the financial apparatus governed by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Now, consider the results of media attention directed towards the substantive information behind XRP. Once news segments and articles are shown and written that illustrate the comparative superiority of XRP to other cryptocurrencies, then the viewers and readers will likely flock to XRP in pursuit of acquiring a tried, tested, and proven cryptocurrency with real-world usage. In turn, a virtuous circle intensifying capital inflow to XRP is predictable and probably to occur. We can expect FOMO to rise and a number of oscillations up and down for the price to unfold. Nevertheless, the price of XRP is bound to not only remain but rather accelerate its demonstrated upwards price trajectory pushing us to new heights. Additionally, if the collective fear among cryptocurrency investors materializes, that is, if new regulations are imposed on our activities, then Ripple is stand to likely gain. Dr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a scholar and risk analyst writes about a concept called “Antifragility.” Antifragility is a term used to describe things that gain from disorder. Considering Ripple’s ties to financial institutions and regulators, it wouldn’t be too far-off to speculate that XRP is positioned to gain if such a black swan event were to occur. FURTHER REASONS TO ADVANCE THE CASE FOR XRP: Financial institutions, renown investors, and accomplished financiers have already taken notice of XRP. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has advocated on Ripple’s behalf. Zoe Cruz, former president for institutional securities and wealth management at Morgan Stanley and former global head of fixed income, commodities, and foreign exchange has joined Ripple’s Board of Directors. She has been named to Forbes list of Most Powerful Women for three years straight. Perhaps most notably, a consortium of 61 banks – organized by SBI Ripple Asia – will be adopting Ripple’s technology to settle transactions between its members with the eventual goal of applying XRP to usage. Mr. Yoshitaka Kitao, the CEO, Executive Chairman, and President has publicly stated, “Forget about bitcoin, we’re all in on XRP!” In fact, SBI has already confirmed that XRP will be put in usage in Spring 2018. If successful, expect the price to reflect it. Moreover, TechCrunch Founder Michael Arrington has, as of November 2017, announced a $100 million XRP hedge fund. His efforts have already raised $50 million which will engender a ripple effect of new large net-worth individual and institutional investors. The entity will be called Arrington XRP Capital and new information about its activities are set to be released in the months that lie ahead. Also, David Schwartz, Ripple’s Chief Cryptographer, has said that there are two major “household” companies (Not financial institutions) that will be announced in Q4. This is likely to provide a substantial boon to XRP. Finally, the Chief Technology Officer of Ripple, Stefan Thomas, has said that in 2018 there will be a “big push on XRP.” For years, Ripple has kept a relative silence in expressing the superiority of XRP. 2018 will be different. 2018 is bound to be Ripple’s year. I expect the price to rise as high as $10 and as low as $4. At any rate, this report only scratches the surface of Ripple and XRP’s potential. For far more nuanced and in-depth analysis and information, I suggest reading from Ripple firsthand at www.ripple.com and perusing the best blog on XRP itself at https://xrphodor.wordpress.com/ To the moon, we go. SOURCE: https://cellardoorway.com/2017/12/24/the-case-for-ripples-xrp-a-brief-overview/
You may remember my post a few weeks back: Yes, You Should Buy Some BNB. At that time, BNB had just started holding above 0.0019-20 BTC, a level it failed to hold three times. The timing was not the primary reason for investing, but it made the decision urgent. The price subsequently rose to roughly 0.0026 BTC and now appears to be settling into a floor around 0.0020-21. They say resistance becomes support, ceilings become floors. Historically for BNB, the downtrend normally ends before hitting the former ceilings. If there was ever a time to of all in, I think now is it… so I did. Figured this would be a good time to dive a bit deeper on why I’m so ultra bullish on BNB. Charisma - Binance feels deeply charismatic to me. It’s a word I didn’t think of in investing until this Peter Thiel interview. Binance strikes me as especially charismatic. Investors largely love Binance as a product and as a company. A lot of this charisma comes from the trust people have in Binance. CZ recently spoke about how Binance now has a “2-hour rule” which is where they update the community every two hours. You may not have known about this exact rule, but you probably have felt it and you certainly have read CZ now-famous “funds are safe.” This expression is so pervasive that you see people racing to comment with it. Bizonaci made this masterpiece which introduced the spelling “safu,” or as CZ recently said Binance is the “safust.” I mean shit, look how calm things were with BNB after after an unexpected SYStem wide freeze. The market stayed calm and BNB is the largest exchange… Let me repeat, Binance—the world’s largest exchange of trustless assets—had to emergency halt trading and the entire market is NBD… The morning after, Jackson Palmer tweeted this sentiment summary, Sherman Lee posted this beautiful piece in Forbes, and Binance announced S.A.F.U. as an official part of their commitment to protect investors. Antifragile - Antifragile is a concept Nassim Taleb coined to describe things that get stronger with stress. Binance seems to strengthen with bad news. When China last banned exchanges, Binance up and moved to Malta and the price soared. Now Binance is in three countries/jurisdictions and probably entering more. These emerging crypto hubs are competing for epic tax revenues, especially relative to their size. If the EU were to push Malta for more regulation, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Malta leave the EU. After all, is Malta better off with Binance, EOS, et al or with the EU? The latter may still be true but it’s increasingly less clear cut. This puts it in a position of incredible strength when it comes to negotiation, staying automomous, and gaining the government cooperation to build financial bridges across the world. In short, I see Binance as having a real shot as delivering on it’s mission of financial freedom. Exchange the world. Adoption - BNB is rapidly gaining adoption. In the past few months, we’ve seen small exchanges list BNB. In the last week, this pace has increased dramatically as Bitmex and Metamask have joined the BNB party. YouTubers and the Twitter sphere seem to be talking about BNB more frequently. The $1B impact fund is to be denominated in BNB and a team member noted in the recent Binance Labs AMA that partners will be able to accept payments in BNB. New coins have already been paying Binance humungo checks to gain access to Binance’s user base; if Binance pulls of Binance Chain DEX (powered by BNB), they’re going to compete at the ERC20 level for the ICO market, at least to some extent. It’s still unclear what Binance Chain will look like, but the support volume is definitely more compelling than other DEXes would be launching with. ICOs numbers are holding strong and Binance continues to be the most attractive place to list. Moreover, with the recent investment ChiliZ, founded by Alexander Dreyfus (founder of e-gaming companies), Binance has demonstrated an interest in the broader speculation market, which basically is crypto right now… and Binance hasn’t even introduced options/futures… Team - The Binance team seems truly world class to me. A good chunk of my last post was about the team (and CZ’s fly-af shorts), but one thing I did not say last time was the value of CZ’s cult-leadership. Don’t get me wrong, I consider this a double edged sword much like ETH and nearly every coin but BTC has. But on the positive edge, this gives Binance an incredible edge when it comes to execution, recruiting, and a ultimately achieving their vision. You can feel the team support for CZ; you can see it in this video and in Binance’s recent staff re-tweet. I also think not enough of my last post was about the community manager(s) who I feel are killing it compared to other subreddit mods. Market - IMO the market will mostly bounce around/move sideways for some time and Binance will make money either way. There may be big moves up but I expect them to be met with significant resistance. Technical analysis is a major driver of price action in crypto specifically because most coins/token have no underlying value (i.e. it is largely emotional responses). As such, alts will continue to have trading value even if they lose a lot of expectation-based value. After all, look how many alts recently went up 20-30%. Get rich quick sentiment has not dried up nearly to the degree some people say. Maybe I’m following the wrong people, but I haven’t seen anyone talk about Bitcoin being “dead”—only people talking about people talking about it being dead. Do you really think Tron and IOTA will die any day now? No, you don’t. The FOMO and FUD are real and the firepowereserve capital many alts have is massive. If a mostly sideways market plays out, then profit chasing will increasingly turn to algo trading, which Binance is well positioned for. In a recent interview, CZ mentioned Binance is planning to expand it’s capacity by 100-1,000x to prepare for a massive increase in usage, and he said it before the algo traders temporarily broke Binance’s API… Okay, but let’s say it’s not like this, let’s say there’s a major breakdown in alts much sooner (maybe everyone realizes Lightning makes a XRP useless). In this case, I expect Convert-to-BNB to do quite well given how many alts are on Binance (especially those who paid to show up because they were so shitty they couldn’t get the crowd to vote for them). Moreover, if you’re losing your life savings and BNB continues to grow, many investors are going to try to an dig themselves out of a hole by selling for BNB. Either way, BNB probably has a bright future. Q3 - Right now, BNB is performing poorly because of the sell the news paradigm crypto seems to operate under. But at about this time last quarter BNB was at peak BTC and ETH value. Compared to last quarter, we’re two weeks ahead, which would make this bottom somewhere between yesterday and next weekend. The growth during the last quarter was also sharper than this quarter, suggesting less to fall, and I suspect the hype train is going to be larger this cycle as rumors of the DEX become more imminent. There’s also extra worry this quarter because the market assumes Binance’s profit will be lower and the second year discount will be lowered (50% BNB discount —> 25% off with BNB discount). I sense that these fears are already priced in. For starters, Binance hasn’t shot up directly after the great quarterly news; why would it shoot down on bad news, especially if it is expected? Regarding the discount, 25% is still better than 0% off, so people should keep using it (especially if the BNB they’re holding is appreciating), and for the next year, Binance should be making 50% more profit (before they made 0.05%, now they will make 0.075% profit). I believe the sentiment on this concern is oversold when the math appears way better to me. Concerns - With all this in mind, I do still have a few concerns. For instance, what do Binance founders/team plan to do with their 100M coins as the BNB supply approaches 100M supply? Will they sell a-la Charlie Lee or will their sell-off be more pre-meditated a la Ripple’s 55mo escrow release? In theory as the price of BNB rises, it will take longer for the supply to get to 100M so this question could be a ways off, but I still would prefer clarity over this (even if it relies on trust). There’s some sentiment concern that the 1/5 vesting coming up will cause a large sell off. I assume inside folk see world-dominating growth ahead given the recent all-star Binance Labs hires, but still would be nice to understand this risk better. Finally, perhaps my largest concern is will Binance have an EOS moment with the freezing functionality laid out in the DEX competition requirements? I can certainly envision a decentralized use and Binance has demonstrated doing the right thing when they take emergency action, but I want to share the concern nevertheless. Deflationary - One concern I do not have with with BNB but recognize others do is about the utility of BNB after the discount goes to 0. Binance says BNB will be used as gas in the eventual Binance Chain DEX. This gives it utility, and unlike other blockchains, Binance already has usage demand. So, if you think any altcoin has value, then BNB—at the DEX stage and without a discount—has value. Beyond dominating trading utility (a huge industry use case), BNB has a decent store of value argument (the other huge industry use case). Unlike most coins/token have unreleased supply for inflation, fees, etc., BNB supply is already fully diluted. While BTC expands its supply for some time to come, BNB will be lowering its supply through the burn. Sure, people lose BTC which is a deflationary force, but I suspect this will become less common as wallet tech improves and the industry matures. To be clear, I don’t think BNB and BTC are otherwise comparable and I don’t think BNB (or any coin/token) will replace BTC. But, BTC has demonstrated that investors want stores of value, so whether your thesis is high usage will appreciate or store of value will appreciate, BNB checks both boxes.
Nassim Taleb: Bitcoin is “Winning” Noted economist Nassim Taleb recently commented on Bitcoin, and why he thinks it is a good alternative asset to fiat currency. The world's financial system looks strained, and in Lebanon, people are struggling to get access to their bank deposits. Taleb was born in Lebanon, and knows the problems that the ... Popular Lebanese-American essayist and economist, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, recently revealed that he has closed his Coinbase account. Taleb, who is also a former options trader and a risk analyst, complained that the US-based exchange was uncooperative in resolving some technical issues. Taleb Closes His Cloinbase Account Apart from being a well-known economist, Taleb is also the author of The ... Nassim Nicholas Taleb, famed philosopher, offers up a mighty, full-throated defense of the world's most popular cryptocurrency, bitcoin. Bitcoin is an excellent idea that fulfills the needs of the complex system, not because it is a cryptocurrency, but precisely because it has no owner, no authority that can decide on its fate, writes the famous essayist, scholar, and risk analyst ... There was a clash on Twitter between Nassim Taleb and Giacomo Zucco about Bitcoin and libertarian philosophy. Taleb is a Lebanese (naturalized American) philosopher, essayist and mathematician very famous for having elaborated the so-called “black swan theory”, which is the metaphor describing the unfolding of an unexpected event of great magnitude with great historical consequences. Bitcoin (BTC) for Lebanon. Mr. Taleb is one of the most prominent advocates of Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency financial institutions. He believes it could replace classical remittance and exchange tools in emerging economies. Six months ago, when banks in Lebanon closed, he highlighted their 'legal crook' approach in difficult situations.
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